The year of 2009 is the year of elections for Indonesia. On 9 April, more than 100 million voters already casted their vote in a legislative election to elect members of the House of Representatives (Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat or DPR). On 8 July, Indonesians will again vote to elect the president and vice-president in the second direct presidential election since the country moved towards democracy in 1998. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the votes, then second round has to be called for on the 8th of September.
The results of the legislative elections of April 9 came out as no surprise. The majority of Indonesian voters once again demonstrated that they preferred national over religious-based parties. The top three parties with significant number of votes are all non-theocratic in nature, namely the Democratic Party (PD) which received 20.8 percent, Golkar Party 14.45 percent, and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) 14.03 percent. The four Islamic or Muslim-based parties –the Justice and Prosperous Party (PKS), the National Mandate Party(PAN), the United Development Party (PPP), and the National Awakening Party (PKB)-- only received 7.88 percent, 6.01 percent, 5.32 percent, and 4.94 percent respectively. The other two parties (Gerindra and Hanura), which are also non-theocratic in nature, received 4.46 percent and 3.77 percent respectively.
The April 9 elections also reduce the number of parties with seats in the DPR. Only nine parties mentioned above that would have seats in the DPR. The remaining 29 parties failed to pass the electoral threshold of 2.5 percent and would not be allocated any seat in the DPR. This, hopefully, would reduce the number of political parties that would contest the 2014 elections.
In terms of quality of electoral management, however, the April elections is far worse that the 1999 and 2004 elections. For example, millions of eligible voters could not cast their vote because their names were not on the voters’ list. The process of counting was also full of problems. These cannot be blamed on the incompetence of the Elections Commission (KPU) alone. The DPR should also be equally blamed for electing incompetence members of the KPU. It is also important to note that the badly organised 2009 elections was due to the increasing disengagement of foreign donors in assisting the process.
The results of the legislative elections, however, have increased the chance for President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) to be re-elected for the second term in the presidential election scheduled on 8 July. The “victory” of the PD has already boosted his confidence as reflected by his decision to pick a non-party professional, the respected economist Dr. Boediono, as his running mate. Indeed, the SBY-Boediono pair is far more popular than the other two pairs, namely Jusuf Kalla-Wiranto of Golkar and Hanura Party and Megawati-Prabowo of PDI-P and Gerindra Party.
If re-elected, however, there is still one political problem that President SBY might face. There is no guarantee that the coalition that he put together with PKS, PAN, PPP, and PKB would be a solid one. For one, even though on paper the coalition can secure a majority of 314 seats in the DPR, in reality patterns of coalition often shift according to issues and interests, not on “political commitment” as a coalition partner. It is unlikely that members of Yudhoyono coalition would always support the policies of his government. In other words, Indonesia’s politics for the period of 2010-2014 will continue to be characterised by a degree of uncertainty. The dream for a strong, effective, and stable government might not be a reality.